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André in Zuid-Afrika

North Korea

Quote:
Was N Korea nuke test a dud?
10/10/2006 14:57 - (SA)

Paris - Was North Korea's nuclear device a dud, as some Western experts suspect?

More than 60 years after the United States first tested a plutonium weapon - partly because scientists weren't sure that it would work - the technology is still tricky for novices to master.

The apparent low yield of the North's test could signal that its scientists, working largely in isolation, haven't quite perfected the deadly art of efficiently splitting atoms.

'Devil is in the details'

"The devil is in the details," French nuclear proliferation expert Bruno Tertrais said. "It's like cooking. The fact that you have the recipe does not make you a chef."

North Korea is widely thought to have been seeking to make bombs from plutonium, the same material used in the device that the US first tested on July 16, 1945, ushering in the atomic age.

Robert Oppenheimer, who oversaw the US weapons programme, on that historic day lost his $10 bet that the bomb - nicknamed "the Gadget" - would not detonate.

Only the North Koreans likely know what sort of explosion they were hoping for and whether the test was a success, as they claimed.

Fizzle

But there's also a possibility that the device - if it was indeed nuclear - suffered what experts call "a fizzle," when the fissile material that provides the bang, likely plutonium in North Korea's case, detonates only partly.

A key reason for those suspicions was the apparent low intensity of the explosion.

Russia estimated that it was a relatively large - equivalent to the force that would be unleashed by 5 000-15 000 tons of the conventional high-explosive TNT.

'There could have been a failure'

But France and others had far lower estimates, ranging from 500-1 000 tons of TNT, prompting the French defence minister to comment "that there could have been a failure".

South Korea also said that it wasn't certain that the North's test was a success and that resolving that doubt would take about two weeks.

France's atomic energy agency did not want to comment further on Tuesday - partly, a spokesperson said, because it was concerned that discussing where North Korea might have gone wrong could help it fix any problems for next time.

Figuring it out on its own

While there is evidence that North Korea got Pakistani help with its nuclear programme, the isolated, communist country also has had to figure out a lot of technical bomb-making details itself - another likely factor in a possible failed test, said Vladimir Orlov of the PIR Centre, a non-proliferation think-tank.

"Both intellectually, technologically and financially, they are really in practical isolation, which is relatively good news," said Orlov.

The apparent low yield, he added, "indicates that the North Koreans really have trouble making what ordinary people would call a nuclear bomb, they really have a primitive nuclear device."



Sander

Yeah ... it's terrible to see the people North Korea being starved so the government can have a new "toy".
Loic

Political leaders in the region are now afraid that N Korea's nuclear testing may spiral off a domino effect where every country in the region clamours to go nuclear, such as Japan, S Korea and maybe even Taiwan.

It might actually bring about a new arms race.
greg in noord-frankrijk

The diplomatic credentials of the Bush government are simply astounding.

Bush : [We] « will not tolerate nuclear weapons in North Korea ».

Bingo ! He's been tolerating them pretty well for two days so far...

Who's next ?
Joanne

loic wrote:
Political leaders in the region are now afraid that N Korea's nuclear testing may spiral off a domino effect where every country in the region clamours to go nuclear, such as Japan, S Korea and maybe even Taiwan.

It might actually bring about a new arms race.

Well, Japan has a 20-mile head start. Even though their own constitution forbids it, they've been quietly re-arming themselves since the 1990s. People are only just noticing because now Japan actually has outspoken leaders who want to re-write their constitution to allow offensive operations. Anyway, they noticed too late. Japan's already armed to the teeth with the latest modern military gadgetry, a kickass navy, and top-notch training for their soldiers. And it's all maintained by the hefty sum of about $50 billion annually. If they wanted, they could probably become nuclear in a year, if not less; although they might still be skittish about that, given their last two experiences with the bomb...

Anyway, I'm sure China and North Korea are peeing their beds at night with the thought of a rearmed, nuclear, P.O.ed Japan landing in their backyard and running roughshod all over them. Again. Just like the old days.
Porthos

I think a well armed Japan is a very good thing, a good asset for U.S. and western nations' foreign policy in the far east. Until now, the U.S. has been providing for all of the defense needs of capitalist, democratic countries in East Asia, with the U.S. shouldering it alone as a buffer against Chinese expansion. Soon, much more will be needed, and allies like Japan and S. Korea need to step up.

The fact is, nobody is going to get involved in a nuclear war, because every country on earth is afraid of nuclear retaliation. The only bad thing about N.Korea obtaining nukes is that they would have a powerful deterrant to American invasion.

What's needed is severe sanctions, and a swift bombing campaign of nuclear facilities. All of N. Korea's trading partners should slap an embargo on them. But, we all know China would never consent to that.
Deborah

greg in noord-frankrijk wrote:
Who's next ?

This seems like a good lead-in to the lyrics of a song by that name by my favorite satirical songwriter, Tom Lehrer. In 1965 an album of his songs from the TV program "That Was The Week That Was" was produced. Here are the lyrics and his spoken introduction:

Who's Next?

(One of the big news items of the past year concerned the fact that China, which we called "Red China," exploded a nuclear bomb, which we called a device. Then Indonesia announced that it was going to have one soon, and proliferation became the word of the day. Here's a song about that:)

First we got the bomb, and that was good,
'Cause we love peace and motherhood.
Then Russia got the bomb, but that's okay,
'Cause the balance of power's maintained that way.
Who's next?

France got the bomb, but don't you grieve,
'Cause they're on our side (I believe).
China got the bomb, but have no fears,
They can't wipe us out for at least five years.
Who's next?

Then Indonesia claimed that they
Were gonna get one any day.
South Africa wants two, that's right:
One for the black and one for the white.
Who's next?

Egypt's gonna get one too,
Just to use on you know who.
So Israel's getting tense.
Wants one in self defense.
"The Lord's our shepherd," says the psalm,
But just in case, we better get a bomb.
Who's next?

Luxembourg is next to go,
And (who knows?) maybe Monaco.
We'll try to stay serene and calm
When Alabama gets the bomb.*
Who's next?
Who's next?
Who's next?
Who's next?

_______________
* This song was written in the Civil Rights era in the US.
Joanne

Porthos wrote:
I think a well armed Japan is a very good thing, a good asset for U.S. and western nations' foreign policy in the far east. Until now, the U.S. has been providing for all of the defense needs of capitalist, democratic countries in East Asia, with the U.S. shouldering it alone as a buffer against Chinese expansion. Soon, much more will be needed, and allies like Japan and S. Korea need to step up.

The fact is, nobody is going to get involved in a nuclear war, because every country on earth is afraid of nuclear retaliation. The only bad thing about N.Korea obtaining nukes is that they would have a powerful deterrant to American invasion.

What's needed is severe sanctions, and a swift bombing campaign of nuclear facilities. All of N. Korea's trading partners should slap an embargo on them. But, we all know China would never consent to that.

I agree that a militarized Japan would definitely keep the region in check. The US shouldn't be the ones to take out North Korea, though. North Korea has one of the largest conventional militaries in the world, and with the US military spread as thin as it is with Afghanistan and Iraq, I think it would be a BAD IDEA to get so deeply entrenched in that part of Asia anytime soon. Especially when it's about to become even more clusterf*cked over there with the appointment of South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-Moon to UN Secretary General. (Hey, the UN can talk about, I mean, take care of it...*snick-snick-snicker*)

The US still has some diplomatic clout with the Chinese and Russia, the two countries that still have any real hold on NK, and should try to get them to step up instead. I can't imagine that China is too happy with KJI lobbing missiles (duds, though they may be for now) that land on an increasingly fed-up Japan's doorstep. It wouldn't surprise me if Beijing sent even more troops to add to the 100,000 that are already at the NK-China border.
Porthos

Joanne,

Make no mistake. With superior American military technology and discipline, and with naval and air bombardment, N.Korea wouldn't last more than a couple of months. The invasion would be an easy one. The hard part, as we are learning in Iraq and Afghanistan, is the occupation. But, if the U.S. was able to send 50,000 troops, along with 25,000 or so Nato forces, there's no reason N. Korea couldn't be dealt with.

This N. Korean threat about a declaration of war has me confused. Who would they make war on? Would they just go after Japan, in retaliation against the U.S.? It's not as if they can attack the U.S. The most they could do is attempt to attack U.S. allies in the region, and the only one they could possibly invade in the first place is S. Korea. In any event, N. Korea's only strength is shere manpower, with an army one-million men strong. Aside from that, they don't have much going for them, and their economy is not capable of sustaining a lenghthy war. If they do engage in some form of warfare, especially if it's waged against the international community, then it would only be a matter of time before the civilian masses topple the authoritarian regime, just like the Bolshevik revoultion in Czarist Russia.

There's two reasons why war should be avoided it at all possible:
1. The millions of innocent, starving N. Korean civilians
2. Financial strain on the U.S. and its allies who would pitch in a miniscule force
Joanne

I guess we just disagree, then. Oh well. I really don't think we should be getting involved too deeply in North Korea. We have our own problems, and we should be sending all our military resources to Afghanistan and Iraq (i.e. doubling the number of troops there, finish the nation building mission, and getting the hell out of there ASAP.) Not the half-assed way Bush is doing it now that'll keep the US military there for the next 30 years.
Quote:
This N. Korean threat about a declaration of war has me confused. Who would they make war on? Would they just go after Japan, in retaliation against the U.S.? It's not as if they can attack the U.S. The most they could do is attempt to attack U.S. allies in the region, and the only one they could possibly invade in the first place is S. Korea.

Bingo. Their missiles can barely make it across the Korean Strait, but Seoul is right there near the border. If the US makes one move on NK, SK gets it in the head, so to speak. NK has been essentially holding Seoul hostage since, well, the beginning. (They're kind of a cooperating hostage, since their private companies bribe KJI on a regular basis to appease him, but I digress...) IIRC, Seoul is the second or third largest producer of electronics in the world, and as KJI knows perfectly well, destroying it would throw the world's economy into disarray.
Quote:
If they do engage in some form of warfare, especially if it's waged against the international community, then it would only be a matter of time before the civilian masses topple the authoritarian regime, just like the Bolshevik revoultion in Czarist Russia.

I think you're underestimating the loyalty the North Koreans have to Dear Leader. When the propaganda machine gets to full steam the population will be more ferverent for him than ever.

I'm just sick of the US having to police the world. People need to strengthen their own damn militaries and keep their own regions in check. Japan's doing it. Australia's not looking too shabby, either. India's okay, but their weapons are Russian crap. Why South Korea isn't doing more, I don't know, but they should.

Wow, I feel so gloom-and-doom today. For one, I think it's great you're all gung-ho, and stuff. All too often people in these forums are content to let the UN appease and appease, and make endless resolutions that never work. Usually, I just bite my tongue (fingers?) and keep to the General and Culture forums, where my blood pressure stays nice and steady :wink:
greg in noord-frankrijk

Porthos wrote:
Make no mistake. With superior American military technology and discipline, and with naval and air bombardment, N.Korea wouldn't last more than a couple of months.


The thing is North Korea has been lasting for 56 years.

With inept US diplomacy, North Korea (supported by China — make no mistake) is sure to last another 670 months —> 2062.
Patrix

Sander wrote:
Yeah ... it's terrible to see the people North Korea being starved so the government can have a new "toy".


It is even more terrible to see the international community demonstrate their stupidity once again by exerting economic sactions on North Korea, which will only result in the starvation of more North Koreans, but just just not leave the Kims wriggle in agony...

Let's see. I bet they are going to do it.
Patrix

greg in noord-frankrijk wrote:
Porthos wrote:
Make no mistake. With superior American military technology and discipline, and with naval and air bombardment, N.Korea wouldn't last more than a couple of months.


The thing is North Korea has been lasting for 56 years.

With inept US diplomacy, North Korea (supported by China — make no mistake) is sure to last another 670 months —> 2062.


I doubt if the support will last that long.. :)
Facts as much as I know are:
1)The Kim family of NK has been objects of all sort of ridicule on China's not-so-official media, esp. the Internet, for years, and the Chinese government are remarkably silent about it; 8) :D
2)Over 50% of participants of a poll on NK nuclear issue say they regard the test as a bad thing to China;
3)A large number of youngsters are actually calling for a invasion into NK, move Kim to Beidaihe, a coastal resort close to Beijing, and get him fed just as fat as he now is in the famine-infested North Korea. 8)
Patrix

Porthos wrote:
I think a well armed Japan is a very good thing, a good asset for U.S. and western nations' foreign policy in the far east. Until now, the U.S. has been providing for all of the defense needs of capitalist, democratic countries in East Asia, with the U.S. shouldering it alone as a buffer against Chinese expansion. Soon, much more will be needed, and allies like Japan and S. Korea need to step up.

The fact is, nobody is going to get involved in a nuclear war, because every country on earth is afraid of nuclear retaliation. The only bad thing about N.Korea obtaining nukes is that they would have a powerful deterrant to American invasion.

What's needed is severe sanctions, and a swift bombing campaign of nuclear facilities. All of N. Korea's trading partners should slap an embargo on them. But, we all know China would never consent to that.


I never really think that the rearming of Japan is a good thing. The reason why the international community is against nuclear proliferation is as far as I can see, that the butterfly effect is so significant in the long term that it is impossible to predict what's gonna happen to the world 100 years later. China and N. Korea are friends at the present time, but how is China going to deal with a perhaps unfriendly but just nuclear NK 40, 50 years later? Pyongyong is only 700 kilometers away from Beijing, 330 kms away from Shenyang, the largest city in Northeast China, where I'm living, and even closer to Seoul. How can people living in the vicinity of NK feel safe? The same logic applies to the United States and Japan. So be against nuke weapons themselves, not just nukes of your enemy. Be agaisnt weapons themselves, not just weapons of your not so constant enemy. That's what I think.
Loic

I have mixed feelings towards a militarised Japan. But what I feel doesn't change the fact that Japan's Self-Defence Force is one of the most powerful in the world on paper - it is not battle-tested since WWII.

When I was in the army, I had access to copies of Jane's, a military defence magazine and the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) are always given very good reviews for military arsenal or lightning-strike capability. We are 250,000 men strong, making our armed forces the largest in the region. But a cynical part of me always feels that an army's worth cannot be measured until it is sent to the battlefield.

That is why I have immense respect for the Israel Defence Force.

If North Korea had really detonated a nuclear bomb as claimed, I suppose its ageing military hardware would matter for naught now. They can simply bomb S Korea to smithereens in the event of another fratricidal war. If I am not mistaken, I read reports where North Korean leaders allegedly claimed that their missiles have a range capability that extends as far as the western coast of the United States. I would not put too much stock into empty boasts as we all know that empty vessels frequently create the loudest noise. But then again, who knows?

North Korea has nothing to lose. I think they are much more likely to flex their nuclear muscle than the other nuclear powers.
greg in noord-frankrijk

Patrix wrote:
China and N. Korea are friends at the present time, but how is China going to deal with a perhaps unfriendly but just nuclear NK 40, 50 years later? Pyongyong is only 700 kilometers away from Beijing, 330 kms away from Shenyang, the largest city in Northeast China, where I'm living, and even closer to Seoul.


You're right : predicting the future is a risky wager. However, it is China's highest interest (and probable obsession) to challenge the USA without appearing too confrontational — at least during the time China has not caught up the gap. North Korea works as a perfect proxy for China's buffer-zone strategy. As you said it may change — all the sooner as the bilateral relationship is far from idyllic and the stakes highly worrying, especially for China's capital.

That said, the North-Korean dictatorial and demented régime sought to sanctuarise its territory and stranglehold over the biggest loser of the story : the North-Korean people. There is no indication that North Korea is desirous to lose the "goodwill" of its biggest neighbour and only "friend" (there's also Iran but...).

The real question is how long will the North-Korean maffia prevail over civil society once the little platform-shoed moron is six feet under ? Would China move under such circumstance ? Would China bargain North Korea for Taïwan in that case ? Or else, would China prefer to keep two thorns thrust in the foot of US military ambitions until she feels ready for regional showdown ?
Porthos

loic wrote:
North Korea has nothing to lose. I think they are much more likely to flex their nuclear muscle than the other nuclear powers.


I don't agree Loic. N. Korea has just as much to lose as anybody else would. They're not insane. They're not going to lob a nuke at a neighbor, because they know they would be sent back to stone age if they were to even try something like that. If you were a five year old girl, would you try to punch a 250 lb man in the face, when you knew he was capable of snapping your little neck in a heartbeat? Or would you just run as fast as you could?

Or perhaps this is a better analogy. If you had a gun, and you were surrounded by 20 men, armed with machine guns, and you were told to lower your weapon or be shot, would you try to get one shot off at one of the twenty men? Hopefully not, because although you might be able to injure 1/20 of their force, you yourself would be dead. Similarly, N. Korea wouldn't try to get one shot off at the enemy, when they know that in return, they would recieve a fatal blow. It's a flea prick versus a shot in the head.

It helps to think of the peninsular friction between north and south as the cold war between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Many feared, that as the masses of the people of Russia became increasingly dissaffected from their rulers, that Russia would in one last desperate attempt, launch a full scale war on her enemies, knowing that the "sit around and wait" strategy was on it's last legs. I think we worry the same thing about N. Korea, especially now that she's backed into a corner. But I'm not so sure if the U.S. would risk going to war with N. Korea. There's no oil there.
Joanne

Quote:
Vienna Nuclear Group:No Radiation Found In N Korea Air Yet-TV
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20061013\ACQDJON200610131026DOWJONESDJONLINE000718.htm&

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization in Vienna hasn't yet detected any airborne radiation after North Korea said it tested a nuclear device on Oct. 9, Cable News Network reported Friday.

CNN also reported, citing sources with access to classified information, that no radiation was detected in tests a day after the reported test.

Earlier Friday, the Associated Press reported that Chinese monitoring has found no evidence of airborne radiation from North Korea's claimed nuclear test, citing an official involved in the monitoring.

Experts and governments have been unable to confirm North Korea's claim of a successful nuclear test. Japanese planes have scooped up air samples, but also detected no radiation. Seismic data show there was an explosion at the claimed test site but is inconclusive whether the blast was caused by a nuclear detonation.
Joanne

Okay, that stupid Marxist URL button doesn't like Nasdaq.com :evil: :roll:
Loic

Porthos: I think North Korea is already in the stone age. I believe the DOS system is still something to be marvelled at in a few selected North Korean schools whereas the world has already relegated that system to the dustbins of history.

I suppose Iran is watching the world's move carefully now. She is another bugger that is interested in flouting international rules with impunity.
David

I think we made a bad move. We should have gone to the worst dictatorship first(N. Korea), and the least bad dictatorship(Iraq) last.

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