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Benjamin [inactive]

Scottish Election

I don't know to what extent this has been publicised in the rest of the world, but Thursday 3rd May is the day Scottish Parliament Election. Although it is not a fully independent country, Scotland actually has its own parliament, which controls most matters specific to Scotland. This election is especially significant, because for the first time in 50 years, it seems likely that the Labour Party will lose power in Scotland — to the Scottish National Party, who support Scottish independence subject to referendum, which as one can imagine really would be a major breakthrough. I have been particularly interested in this election, because, as many of you already know, I am moving to Scotland in September.

So, has this been featured at all in the international media?

Anyway, here are the six main and semi-main parties which have been playing a significant or semi-significant role in the election campaign, with their leaders. Since the Parliament is elected by proportional representation, no one party is likely to 'win' overall. Instead, it will probably be necessary to form a coalition government, in which it will not necessarily be the leader of the largest coalition partner who becomes First Minister.

Scottish Labour Party — centrist; unionist; pro-nuclear


Jack McConnell, current First Minister of Scotland


Scottish National Party — centre-left; pro-independence; anti-nuclear


Alex Salmond


Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party — centre-right; unionist; pro-nuclear


Annabel Goldie


Scottish Liberal Democrats — centre-left; federalist; anti-nuclear


Nicol Stephen, current Deputy First Minister of Scotland


Scottish Green Party — left-wing; pro-independence; anti-nuclear


Robin Harper


Shiona Baird


Scottish Socialist Party — far-left; pro-independence; anti-nuclear


Colin Fox
André in Zuid-Afrika

Little media attention here so far, but it will pick up as the election comes closer, the Scottish elections usually get quite a lot of attention here. Interesting info, btw, Ben, I actually wanted to do some reading on the election.
André in Zuid-Afrika

Ooooh, I love elections!! I'm watching the results of the Scottish elections on Sky now.
Benjamin [inactive]

André in Zuid-Afrika wrote:
Ooooh, I love elections!! I'm watching the results of the Scottish elections on Sky now.

I'm looking at the results page on the BBC website — nothing seems to have come through so far though!
André in Zuid-Afrika

Benjamin wrote:
André in Zuid-Afrika wrote:
Ooooh, I love elections!! I'm watching the results of the Scottish elections on Sky now.

I'm looking at the results page on the BBC website — nothing seems to have come through so far though!


None so far for the Scottish elections, but a few results are out in the English local elections - the Tories seem to be gaining, but it's to early to really tell.
Benjamin [inactive]

André in Zuid-Afrika wrote:
None so far for the Scottish elections, but a few results are out in the English local elections - the Tories seem to be gaining, but it's to early to really tell.

I actually voted for the first time today, in an English local election. I voted Green. My mother also voted Green, breaking a habit of a lifetime by not voting Liberal Democrat. And my father had apparently intended to vote Green until he saw on the ballot paper that there was also a British National Party candidate, so he decided that it would be safer to vote Labour instead.

Actually, the Green Party were the only party to send a leaflet through our door prior to the election.
André in Zuid-Afrika

Benjamin wrote:
André in Zuid-Afrika wrote:
None so far for the Scottish elections, but a few results are out in the English local elections - the Tories seem to be gaining, but it's to early to really tell.

I actually voted for the first time today, in an English local election. I voted Green. My mother also voted Green, breaking a habit of a lifetime by not voting Liberal Democrat. And my father had apparently intended to vote Green until he saw on the ballot paper that there was also a British National Party candidate, so he decided that it would be safer to vote Labour instead.

Actually, the Green Party were the only party to send a leaflet through our door prior to the election.


Great feeling actually when you vote for the first time, isn't it!
André in Zuid-Afrika

BTW, the Libdems seem to be doing quite well as well.
André in Zuid-Afrika

Sky's predicting the SNP taking 45 seats in Scotland, Labour 44.
Benjamin [inactive]

André in Zuid-Afrika wrote:
BTW, the Libdems seem to be doing quite well as well.

Indeed — they actually seem to have got the most councillors so far (even though not many results are in yet).

André in Zuid-Afrika wrote:
Sky's predicting the SNP taking 45 seats in Scotland, Labour 44.

Oh shit... if that happens, then something tells me that we'll be having another Scottish Parliament Election rather soon...

And that would still leave 40 seats for other parties and independents, most of which would go either to the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, with some to the Greens and the Scottish Socialist Party. I can't even begin to imagine what sort of coalition this would produce, if any.
André in Zuid-Afrika

First seat in Scotland goes to Labour - in Motherwell and Wishaw
André in Zuid-Afrika

From that result - strong swing to SNP (7,7%), strong swing away from Labour (6%), and small swing from Tories (2,2%)
André in Zuid-Afrika

And the Tories are gaining strongly in the English elections.
Benjamin [inactive]

André in Zuid-Afrika wrote:
First seat in Scotland goes to Labour - in Motherwell and Wishaw

Which incidentally is Jack McConnell's seat.
Benjamin [inactive]

André in Zuid-Afrika wrote:
And the Tories are gaining strongly in the English elections.

They've gained 32 councillors so far... whereas Labour have lost 11 and the Liberal Democrats have lost 14 already.
André in Zuid-Afrika

Benjamin wrote:
André in Zuid-Afrika wrote:
First seat in Scotland goes to Labour - in Motherwell and Wishaw

Which incidentally is Jack McConnell's seat.


Which makes the swing there all the more significant. This is fascinating!
André in Zuid-Afrika

Sky's experts believe that shows the SNP will come out as largest party in the election
André in Zuid-Afrika

Seems the Birmingham result is generating a lot of interest.
André in Zuid-Afrika

And then there's the Welsh election as well. No results yet.
Benjamin [inactive]

Second seat in Scotland goes to Labour — Glasgow Kelvin (no real surprise there, as Glasgow is probably pretty safe as far as Labour is concerned).
Benjamin [inactive]

I really shouldn't be staying up all night, but it's starting to get exciting! Third result now in — Dundee West goes SNP.
André in Zuid-Afrika

Benjamin wrote:
I really shouldn't be staying up all night, but it's starting to get exciting! Third result now in — Dundee East goes SNP.


I know what you mean, I should get to bed as well, but this is fascinating! The SNP seems to be doing extremely well.
André in Zuid-Afrika

Benjamin wrote:
Third result now in — Dundee West goes SNP.


Massive swing - 16%!
André in Zuid-Afrika

The Tories are making big gains in England, meanwhile. Just now took North Warwickshire.
André in Zuid-Afrika

According to Sky's experts, if there was a general election in Britain today, the Conservatives would win with a majority of 40.
André in Zuid-Afrika

Early results in Wales not good for Labour. They lost a seat in a place called Pdsadfwr Ddajewed... or something like that...
André in Zuid-Afrika

The Conservatives are now the largest party in Birmingham - the first time in 24 years.
Loic

Let's have the party of Sir Winston Churchill regain its natural prominence in Westminister once again. The local elections augur well for the Tories.

André in Zuid-Afrika

Well, the next election is still some time away, but based on yesterday's results, the Tories would win a majority of 24 if an election was held now, according to the experts.
André in Zuid-Afrika

After a good start, the Libdems have failed to perform well.
Loic

It would be fascinating to see whether increased support for the SNP would translate into anything tangible as far as Scottish independence is concerned.
Benjamin [inactive]

loic wrote:
Let's have the party of Sir Winston Churchill regain its natural prominence in Westminister once again.

This assumes that Winston Churchill would actually recognise the Conservative Party of today as being the same party which he knew.

loic wrote:
It would be fascinating to see whether increased support for the SNP would translate into anything tangible as far as Scottish independence is concerned.

It would seem not. Although support for independence increased significantly in Scotland last year, it appears to have gone down recently. Instead, more powers for the Scottish Parliament has become a significantly more popular option. However, according to all the opinion polls I've seen on this subject, it seems that most Scottish people would like to vote on the issue. One of the strengths of the SNP's campaign this time is that they've stressed that a vote for the SNP is not actually a vote for independence, but a vote for an independence referendum.

Currently, Labour have 38 seats, the SNP have 34 seats, the Liberal Democrats have 13 seats, the Conservatives have 10 seats and the Greens have 1 seat. However, there are still 33 seats left to be declared, so it could go either way. And even after all seats have been declared, it still could go either way, due to the need to form coalitions.
André in Zuid-Afrika

The deputy leader of the SNP mentioned the possibility of a referendum in 2010.
Pauline

If Scotland were independant, would the Queen remain the Queen of Scotland as well? Would it get a prince like in a principality? I think that the Lochness Monster must be the Princess of Scotland !!!!!
Benjamin [inactive]

The last few constituency votes are just coming in now. The SNP have gained Edinburgh East with a 13.3% swing away from Labour. It will be interesting to see if the result is similar in Edinburgh North when that comes in. I'm guessing that Edinburgh West will remain Liberal Democrat.

The SNP have also just gained Argyll & Bute, with a 9.2% swing away from the Liberal Democrats. Labour have managed to hold Aberdeen Central, although only just.

When the results of the last two Edinburgh constituencies are known, we just have to wait for the rest of the regional list votes to be calculated, which attempts to ensure that the representation in the Parliament of the various parties is proportionate to their vote share. I'm hoping that the Greens will be able to get some more seats as a result of this.
Benjamin [inactive]

Pauline wrote:
If Scotland were independant, would the Queen remain the Queen of Scotland as well?

Interesting question. The SNP's official policy is that Queen Elizabeth II would remain the Head of State in Scotland after independence, like in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Barbados etc. However, it is true that many SNP members and supporters are republicans.
Benjamin [inactive]

Labour and the SNP are currently on 40 seats each. All the constituency votes are now in, but we just have to wait for 21 more regional list seats to be declared. It's amazing that, at this late stage, it really could still go either way.

There have apparently been over 100,000 spoilt ballot papers, and the whole voting and counting process has been described as a chaos. There has even been the suggestion of a possible recount.
Loic

Quote:
This assumes that Winston Churchill would actually recognise the Conservative Party of today as being the same party which he knew.


He would not, I must admit. The Conservative party of today have moved too far to the centre. Winston Churchill must be rolling in his grave.

Quote:
It would seem not. Although support for independence increased significantly in Scotland last year, it appears to have gone down recently. Instead, more powers for the Scottish Parliament has become a significantly more popular option. However, according to all the opinion polls I've seen on this subject, it seems that most Scottish people would like to vote on the issue. One of the strengths of the SNP's campaign this time is that they've stressed that a vote for the SNP is not actually a vote for independence, but a vote for an independence referendum.


The road to independence is not a yellow-brick road. I cast aspersions on the capability of the SNP to effectively run the country. I seriously doubt if Scottish voters would feel sufficiently hard done by to ever vote for independence in a convincing fashion. Only mavericks with a short term planning horizon would hold such an option in serious contemplation - after all, they could care less if Scotland's economy goes to the drain under the stewardship of untrained and inexperienced SNP ministers.
Benjamin [inactive]

loic wrote:
Quote:
This assumes that Winston Churchill would actually recognise the Conservative Party of today as being the same party which he knew.


He would not, I must admit. The Conservative party of today have moved too far to the centre. Winston Churchill must be rolling in his grave.

I'm not sure that he would recognise the extreme neo-liberal economic policies introduced by Margaret Thatcher as being entirely part of the party he knew either.

loic wrote:
they could care less if Scotland's economy goes to the drain under the stewardship of untrained and inexperienced SNP ministers.

I very much doubt that that the economy of a post-independent Scotland would 'go to the drain'. At the end of the day, although it would probably be the poorest country in Western Europe, it would still be a 'rich' country on the grand scheme of the world. It would not, for example, be as poor as Bangladesh, as one Labour minister suggested a few months ago. Even in Poland, where GDP per-capita is about a third of that in Britain/France/Germany/etc., and where the economy isn't all that brilliant either, standard of living is still high on a global scale.

I must be a 'maverick with a short term planning horizon' then, because I don't particularly care if Scotland's economy declines either (note: it makes more sense at the moment to think of me as someone who actually lives in Scotland, rather than as an outsider looking at the country). There is more to life than economic growth. I want Scotland to have the moral highground — something I do not feel possible under the current British government, who like using Scotland as a dumping ground for dangerous nuclear weapons (and something which I believe would be more possible under the Scottish Green Party than the Scottish National Party anyway).
Benjamin [inactive]

Incidentally, since we were also discussing the English local elections, the BBC has estimated the following percentage of vote share overall in England:

41% — Conservative
27% — Labour
26% — Liberal Democrat
_6% — other

I now have the numbers of seats in the Birmingham council:

44 — Conservative
41 — Labour
32 — Liberal Democrat
_2 — Respect
_1 — independent

I also have the vote share for my specific ward, which is the election in which I voted:

49% — Conservative
22% — Labour
14% — Green
10% — Liberal Democrat
_6% — British National Party

... an encouraging result for the Green candidate — more than twice the percentage of votes compared to last year.
Benjamin [inactive]

SNP come out as the largest party in the Scottish Parliament

Well, they've finally finished counting all the votes and working out the extremely complicated system of proportional representation, and here are the results in number of seats:

47 — Scottish National Party
46 — Scottish Labour Party
17 — Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
16 — Scottish Liberal Democrats
_2 — Scottish Green Party
_1 — independent

A very disappointing result for the Greens, compared to the 7 seats they won in 2003. Also a disappointment to see that the Scottish Socialist Party did not manage to win any seats this time, compared to 6 in 2003.
Benjamin [inactive]

Coalition talks are now underway...

The Scottish Conservatives have decided that they will not be part of a coalition government. The Scottish Green Party have also stated that they would prefer not to be part of a coalition, and the somewhat eccentric independent Margo MacDonald, has also refused to be part of any coalition.

If this remains the case, then a minority government is inevitable, unless a coalition can be agreed between Labour and the SNP. The Scottish Liberal Democrats have said that they will not enter a coalition with the SNP if it meant an independence referendum. They've also said that they won't enter into a coalition with Scottish Labour unless their own leader gets to be First Minister. Labour have also decided to allow the SNP, as the largest party, to try and form any coalition first, before approaching the Liberal Democrats themselves.
André in Zuid-Afrika

The SNP would be stupid if they reject a coalition with the Libdems for the sake of a referendum in this term (which they won't get anyway if Labour and the Libdems form a coalition). But will Labour agree to the Libdems getting the First Minister?
Benjamin [inactive]

André in Zuid-Afrika wrote:
The SNP would be stupid if they reject a coalition with the Libdems for the sake of a referendum in this term

You're right, they would. Instead, I think that the SNP should form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, use this term to devolve more powers to the Scottish Parliament (as supported by the Liberal Democrats), and implement their centre-left policies for the benefit of Scotland in its current situation. Then if Alex Salmond proves popular over the next four years, then maybe the SNP will win more seats next time, perhaps enabling them to have an independence referendum during the following term.

Actually, over the past day or so, Alex Salmond has been talking about a 'coalition of progressives', whilst trying not to emphasise the idea of an independence referendum so much.

And if the Conservatives win the UK General Election in 2009 or 2010, as loic desires, then I'm sure that support for independence in Scotland would increase significantly. Ironically, the Conservative Party would almost certainly have a 'natural prominence' in Westminister without Scotland and Wales.

Quote:
But will Labour agree to the Libdems getting the First Minister?

I doubt it. Labour have been rather critical of the Liberal Democrats recently.
André in Zuid-Afrika

Interesting editorial in today's Scotland on Sunday.

Quote:
Do Scotland proud
FIRST things first: this newspaper congratulates Alex Salmond on his remarkable achievement in leading the SNP to victory as the biggest party in the Holyrood Parliament. It is a historic achievement, won after an accomplished campaign that demonstrated Salmond's skill, intelligence and charisma. If he can win the necessary support from other parties to back him as First Minister, he undoubtedly has the moral authority to govern.

What he does not have is the moral authority to drag Scotland to independence. Two-thirds of voters on Thursday backed parties that want the continuance of the Union between Scotland and England - which last week marked its 300th year as a successful social, cultural, economic and political entity. As he enters talks with the Lib Dems and the Greens, both of whom he needs to give him a majority at Holyrood and become First Minister, Salmond must honour his pledge made in the campaign and repeated on Friday that he will govern in the interests of the country and not the party.

This weekend, across Scotland, there is a new mood in the air. Even among those who did not vote for Salmond there is an intense interest in how he will rise to the challenge. This sense of being on the brink of a new era is one that bodes well for Scotland, and Salmond should grasp it with confidence tempered with humility, if he is capable of such a combination.

This weekend there will be people who argue that Thursday's election failed to provide a democratic result that can be relied on with any degree of credibility. With up to 100,000 votes ruled out of order, and the margin of some constituency victories as small as 48 votes, strong views are understandable. Robust challenges to the interpretations made by returning officers are a legitimate course of action for a Labour Party that lost the election by a single seat, but this newspaper would urge that this election must not become a facsimile of the US presidential contest in 2000, when the post-election wrangling trailed through the courts for weeks.

Thursday's chaos needs properly examined and Scotland on Sunday welcomes Salmond's commitment to an independent inquiry. But we must guard against this becoming one of those occasions where we Scots shake our heads and mourn our inability to hold a piss-up in a brewery. Such a response is almost a reflex in these situations, and we must resist the temptation to give it sustenance. The last thing Scotland needs at this point is a repeat of the kind of self-lacerating mood that accompanied the Holyrood building overspend at the start of this decade. The failures in the voting system that became apparent in the early hours of Friday morning must be forensically examined and changes implemented that will ensure that a Scottish election is never again ridiculed across the globe. Let's fix the problem, and then move on.

Interested parties
Any lingering disgruntlement about the voting arrangements of May 3 will only serve to fuel disillusionment with the political system. The turnout last week, up a fifth on the figure for 2003, is an encouraging sign that democracy is still capable of catching the Scottish public's imagination, if clear choices are presented with vigour and passion. We must nurture this, not discourage it.

Now it is the duty of our political leaders to provide the means for the national renewal Scotland so patently needs. If they put party interest before the need for strong and stable government - for example, by refusing to make the kinds of concessions that would allow a coalition to be formed - the voters will not readily forgive them. There is an appetite in the land for a more dynamic parliament engaging with the country's problems and engaging, too, with the world at large; there is none for endless political wrangling at the bottom of the Royal Mile.

This weekend, Jack McConnell is refusing to accept his time as First Minister has come to an end. Fair enough. But he must know that the chances of him holding on to the keys to Bute House and still retaining any credibility in the eyes of the public are slim. What McConnell does now is a matter for him, but Scottish Labour desperately needs a new blueprint for the future, and a leader capable of a root-and-branch reform of what the party stands for in Scotland. If McConnell does not have the authority to carry this through he should stand aside. It would be a pity, because much of what Labour needs to do is in tune with an agenda McConnell signed up to as an idealistic young man in the 1980s in the nationalist-minded pressure group, Scottish Labour Action, risking the opprobrium of the party hierarchy by pushing hard for a muscular Scottish Parliament with a high degree of financial independence from Westminster, and a Scottish Labour Party that was not in thrall to its London masters. It is time such ideas were again discussed in the Labour ranks, and a leader emerged who had the confidence to remake the party for the new age. Only by recognising that Scotland has changed, and that Labour has not kept pace, can the party regain the trust and allegiance it had come to take for granted.

Offices to fill
Salmond and McConnell are not the only leaders with decisions to make this weekend. Annabel Goldie has signalled she wants to stay on as Conservative leader, despite requests for her to step down and stand for election as Presiding Officer at Holyrood, to replace George Reid.

There are two reasons why Scotland on Sunday believes she should reconsider. The first is that she would be a superb Presiding Officer, enjoying as she does the warmth and affection of MSPs across the political spectrum and the public at large. She would be a doughty character at the heart of Scotland's Parliament, and an adornment to our democracy.

The second reason is that despite a strong campaign in recent weeks, where her charm has been to the fore, Goldie is not the leader the Scottish Tories so desperately require. She has been slow to embrace radical positions such as more fiscal responsibility for the parliament, and a more arm's-length relationship with the Tories down south. Stuck in the doldrums, unable to shake off their associations with the past, the Scottish Tories need a new and dynamic leadership capable of offering voters an agenda that is both distinctively centre-right and pro-Scottish. Goldie should stand aside in the knowledge that she can still make a worthwhile contribution to Scottish politics.

Nicol Stephen, the Lib Dems' leader, must - like Salmond - put aside his party instincts this week in favour of a greater good. If anything, Stephen faces a more thorny dilemma than the SNP leader. He has three main choices - sign up to a coalition with Salmond; let the Nationalists rule as a minority government, but with support on confidence votes and budgets; or enter into an anti-Nat alliance with Labour and the Tories. Within these options he has further dilemmas - after everything he has said in opposition to an independence referendum, can he accept Salmond's olive branch of a multi-option vote that would include more powers for the Parliament alongside the option of a separate Scottish state? And can he really gang up with Labour to deny power to the electorate's favoured party and their first-choice First Minister? The revelation in our news pages today that Labour is willing to offer the Lib Dems gifts beyond their wildest dreams - including a halt to new nuclear power stations in Scotland - shows how intense the wooing of Stephen is likely to become.

For now, however, the moment belongs to Alex Salmond. His claim when he took on the leadership for the second time and said he would win 20 more seats and lead the SNP to power was greeted with ridicule at the time. He deserves respect for delivering on what was dismissed as boastful at best and delusional at worst. The best option for Scotland now is that he and Stephen do whatever is necessary to create a coalition government that can do Scotland proud.

Benjamin [inactive]

Interesting article, André! Thanks for posting it!

According to the following BBC article, the Scottish Liberal Democrats have decided that they will not form a coalition with Scottish Labour. On the other hand, it does seem that they hope to come to some sort of deal with the SNP.

Likewise, the Greens are now also in the process of discussing coalition arrangements with the SNP — both parties have described the the talks as 'positive and constructive'.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6629775.stm
André in Zuid-Afrika

So it would seem like a SNP/Libdem/Green coalition then.
Benjamin [inactive]

André in Zuid-Afrika wrote:
So it would seem like a SNP/Libdem/Green coalition then.

Or not... the Liberal Democrats have now rejected the possibility of forming a coalition with the SNP, because the SNP have continued to demand an independence referendum. Nicol Stephen, leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, has said than an SNP minority government now seems likely.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6631053.stm
Benjamin [inactive]

Almost two weeks since the election, the SNP leader Alex Salmond has been elected as First Minister of Scotland, at 49 votes for to 46 votes against. He was supported by the Scottish National Party and the Scottish Green Party, and opposed by the Scottish Labour Party, whilst the Scottish Conservatives, the Scottish Liberal Democrats, and Margo MacDonald all abstained. He will now go about forming a minority SNP administration.

Alex Salmond and his wife are pictured here:


Jack McConnell has indicated his intention to stay on as opposition leader, stating that he is 'proud to lead the largest opposition party that Scotland has ever had'. How long his party will allow him to remain in this role, though, remains to be seen.
Lazar

So Benjamin, how likely do you think an independence referendum will be in the near future?
Benjamin [inactive]

Lazar wrote:
So Benjamin, how likely do you think an independence referendum will be in the near future?

Unlikely in the next four years. As promised, over the next few months the SNP will introduce a bill for an independence referendum planned in 2010, which would be supported by the Greens and Margo MacDonald. Unfortunately, it would be opposed by Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, so the bill would not get through.

However, all going well, the SNP should now have the next four years to demonstrate that they are capable of running the Scottish government; if they create a good impression, then they may be able to gain more seats in the parliament in the next election. If they and other pro-independence parties and individuals manage to win a majority of the seats next time, then they'd be able to have a referendum.

Equally, I suspect that Alex Salmond is intending to create as much tension as possible between Scotland and the UK government over the next four years, especially concerning matters like building more nuclear power stations and storing nuclear weapons in Scotland, which the SNP oppose but Labour and the Conservatives support. If the UK government ignores protests from Salmond's government and goes ahead with its nuclear plans in Scotland anyway, then he'd be able to claim that the UK as a whole was imposing these things on Scotland against its will.

There now also seems to be a very real possibility that the Conservatives will win the next UK general election. Of course, it is extremely unlikely that Scotland would largely vote Conservative. This would strengthen the SNP's argument for independence, since they'd be able to claim that a government that Scotland didn't even vote for was forcing Scotland to host nuclear weapons and build nuclear power stations, against the wishes of the Scottish government.

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